Tuesday, October 27, 2009

How can both stock market and unemployment rate keep going up? It doesn't make sense to me at least...

Last month the national unemployment average rose to 9.8%. It’s actually at 17% if you count distressed and underemployed workers. Not only is unemployment data weak, it’s getting worse. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said unemployment would hit at least 10% before turning back.

Even with this well-known data, the market is going up. The S&P 500 is sporting a mostly gentle uptrend from March to October. The market thinks we’re recovering. Bernanke and company have said as much. However, given that, we have the toughest job market in a generation, to me it seems a little premature to declare recovery – at least a strong one.

I’m not alone in my assessment. CNNMoney.com’s Editor At Large Paul LaMonica recently said, “Repeat after us. There is no strong recovery without job growth. There is no strong recovery without job growth. Why does Wall Street not get that?”

A good question. Why is the market going up while jobs are going down?

It makes even less sense when you consider the nature of unemployment. It goes back to demand. When companies experience demand for their products and services, they will seek to meet that demand. If meeting that demand requires more labor, they will hire. If companies hire, then unemployment goes down. People return to Starbucks to order their Double Skinny Lattes.

But that’s not what is happening. Instead, companies are cutting jobs. Why does the market go up while this is happening?

To this humble market observer, it seems that most of the buying pressure is coming from earnings. Quarterly profits have been good, often better than expected, primarily driven from falling operating expenses. Operating expenses are falling because many large companies are cutting jobs. There are other factors, but job cuts are definitely helping the bottom line.

In recent days, Sun Microsystems (JAVA), The New York Times (NYT), Dell (DELL), St. Jude Medical (STJ) all shed jobs to stabilize their businesses. And these companies aren’t even banks. We just crossed the 100 barrier for failed banks in the US this year. I’m not sure where all those employees have gone, but they aren’t helping keep unemployment rolls under 10%.

Despite the slumping jobs market and rising stock market, I am often reminded of economist John Maynard Keynes’ aphorism. “The market can stay irrational longer than you can solvent.” This may be one of those times.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

The Implications of Insider Trading in Hedge Fund Land

The arrest of hedge fund millionaire, Raj Rajaratnam, on charges that he and his $7 billion Galleon Group hedge fund profited from illegal insider trading will no doubt feed suspicion in some corners about the way hedge funds generate fat profits. But for anyone to assume that all hedge fund managers owe their success to getting information on the sly is unfair and wrong. The overwhelming majority of hedge funds are only as good as the quality of the research performed by their analysts and traders.

And the truth is the vast majority of hedge funds are rather ordinary. If the majority of hedge funds managers were so crafty, not so many funds would have gone bust last year–or lost bundles of money for their wealthy investors. The true standouts in the industry are a real minority. Anyone can put together an offering statement, call themselves a hedge fund manager and go out and raise money. That’s one reason why wealthy people and pension funds who throw money blindly at hedge funds without doing adequate due diligence are being plain foolish.

Still, the charges against Mr. Rajaratnam and five co-defendants are disturbing. Hubris and greed are powerful motivators. And some hedge funds will stretch, even break the rules to get an edge–even if it’s to book just another $20 million for a fund with nearly $7 billion in assets. Indeed, it’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time Galleon has been accused of skirting the rules to get an edge.

In 2005, Galleon paid an $800,000 fine to the SEC to settle a civil investigation into allegations it improperly profited from shorting 17 stocks. The SEC alleged the hedge fund violated securities rules by using shares obtained in a secondary offering to cover, or close out, a pre-existing short position on a stock. Regulators claimed that impermissible strategy called “collapsing the box” essentially was a risk-less one and generated $1 million in trading profits for Galleon. Maybe the 2005 settlement put Galleon on a watch-list for prosecutors. It appears from the criminal complaint prosecutors began focusing on Galleon and its co-founder in 2006.

In addition, Galleon always has had something of a cowboy culture. Years ago, the fund recruited a former Bank of America (BAC) technology analyst who was fined and suspended by securities regulators because he allegedly issued misleading bullish research reports on stocks he was simultaneously advising hedge funds to sell short.

However, what may be most troubling about this latest case brought by federal authorities in New York is that one of the people allegedly providing illegal tips on leveraged buyouts and other deals was an analyst with Moody’s Investors Services (MCO), the credit rating agency. The alleged tipster got $10,000 for his work.

The allegation about the Moody’s analyst raises serious questions about safeguarding the flow of information from credit rating agencies to traders on Wall Street. We’ve already seen evidence in a civil lawsuit against UBS (UBS) that suggests some at Moody’s may have discussed potential rating changes on CDOs with some Wall Street banks.

Insider trading is a problem that has been around as long as people have traded stocks. And it’s almost impossible to stamp-out insider trading, given the premium someone will put on getting inside information. But aggressive law enforcement, like the kind done in this case, should serve as a deterrent–hopefully.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Courses at Simon Graduate School of Business - University of Rochester.

Off late, lot of first year students have been approaching me to get some advice on the courses they should take next year. So, I decided to put up a brief post on my blog related to my experience with the courses at Simon Graduate School of Business....But needless to say, these opinions might be biased.....

Following is the list of all the elective courses I took at Simon School of Business (no need to comment on the core courses as you can't do much about it - you need to take them whether you like it or not):

1st Year
=============================

Winter:

  • Financial Statement Analysis : Awesome course, Prof Wasley is a great professor, a must course for someone looking for a career in investment banking or equity research.

Spring:
  • Investments : Awesome course, a must course for someone looking for a career in portfolio management, trading or equity research .
  • Corporate Finance: Again one of the great courses at Simon School, Prof. Smith is a high class professor, he has got his own unique style of teaching, a must course for any finance related job.
2nd Year
=============================

Fall:
  • Financial Institutions : Awesome course, a quite useful course for someone looking for a career in capital markets especially risk management related jobs. (Unfortunately, because of some job related commitments, I wasn't able to put the efforts I would have liked to in this course...Result - struggled a little during my internship at CIM - CIGNA Investment Management)
  • Cases in Finance: Again one of the great courses at Simon School, Prof. Jarrel is a high class professor as he also has got his own unique style of teaching. A must course for any Investment Banking or equity research. But I would recommend every Simon School student to take this course as it is just not a course but it is an awesome experience.
  • Financial Reporting I: I took this course as I wanted to concentrate in Corporate Accounting. Many times during the course, I got frustrated. May be because the other professors had set very high standards and hence expectations. But at this moment, I realize, how valuable that course was. Anyone looking for a career in accounting or equity research, don't miss out this course.
  • Application of corporate finance in Health care: I took this course as I wanted to learn about health care industry. It turned out to be one of the most useful for course for me as the Professor helped me a lot to prepare for my interviews at CIGNA and Aetna...And even now when I am covering health care industry as an equity research associate, lot of times I refer to his notes..:)
Winter:
  • Investment Management & Trading Strategy : Again one of the great courses at Simon School. For Professor Burnside what to say - just one fact - he got "Superior Teaching Award" for 2009 - says everything. He also helped me a lot in my job search. This course is a must for anyone looking for a career in Portfolio Management and Trading but anyone interested for any career in finance should take this course.
  • Pricing Policies : One of the courses you definitely want to take at Simon School. Take a break from finance and accounting course and do take this course...Good Course, great professor.
  • Futures & Options : Content was good but professor...hmmm..May be didn't suit my style....take this course if you love futures and options and you feel that you would never take initiatives to study about them on your own. Otherwise, I will take a miss.
  • Advanced Managerial Data Analysis : Professor Schwert is highly regarded in the industry. This is an advance version of GBA - I will call it as GBA III. For anyone interested in market research and analysis or quant related jobs, this course would be extremely helpful.
Spring:
  • Financial reporting II : I registered for this course to delay my graduation and get my concentration in my corporate accounting. Not compelling enough for me. But I believe, this would be an useful course for someone looking for CPA track.
Some other courses, which I would recommend (though I didn't take them):
  • International Economics
  • Macroeconomics - Great Professor and excellent course.
Other than that, on my job front, it is like "Dream come True" and I am enjoying every bit of it. Little hectic but great experience so far.......

    Friday, June 19, 2009

    Some questions I faced in my job interviews....

    Interview Questions for Equity Research jobs

    · Walk me through your resume

    · Tell me about yourself.

    · Is this your top choice? Why or why not? Why this firm over others?

    · Why equity research?

    · Why Buy Side / Sell Side?

    · Why this firm?

    · What are your shot-term / long term goals?

    · Pitch a Stock? What do you like about the stock? What you don’t like about the stock? What are the risks associated with this industry and the stocks?

    · Do you have any industry focus and why? Views on this industry?

    · Talk about your excel modeling skills.

    · Talk about your accounting skills.

    · What are your views on market efficiency?

    · Which valuation approach do you prefer? Advantages and Disadvantages of each of them?

    · Which comparable multiples do you prefer? Advantages and Disadvantages of each of them?

    · How do you calculate Free Cash Flow to Equity and Free Cash Flow to firm?

    · How are three financial statements related to each other?

    · What is your opinion about the current economy and where are we heading from here?

    Interview Questions for Trading related jobs

    · Walk me through your resume

    · Tell me about yourself.

    · Is this your top choice? Why or why not? Why this firm over others?

    · Why Trading?

    · Why this firm?

    · What are your shot-term / long term goals?

    · Talk about some trading strategies you like.

    · Talk about your risk taking abilities.

    · Which asset classes do you like to trade and why?

    · What do you understand by the economics of trading?

    · Talk about price impact / best execution / bid-ask spread.

    · What is your opinion about the current economy and where are we heading from here?

    Interview Questions for Investment Management / Portfolio Management related jobs

    · Walk me through your resume

    · Tell me about yourself.

    · Is this your top choice? Why or why not? Why this firm over others?

    · Why Portfolio Management?

    · Why this firm?

    · What are your shot-term / long term goals?

    · Explain sharpe-ratio?

    · Pitch a Stock? What do you like about the stock? What you don’t like about the stock? What are the risks associated with this industry and the stocks?

    · Talk about your excel modeling skills.

    · Talk about your accounting skills.

    · Talk about your risk taking abilities.

    · What is your opinion about the current economy and where are we heading from here?

    · Which sectors would you like to be underweight and which sectors would you like to be overweight in this economy.

    Behavioral Questions (more relevant for Corp Fin related jobs)

    · Walk me through your resume

    · Tell me about yourself.

    · Is this your top choice? Why or why not? Why this firm over others?

    · What are your shot-term / long term goals?

    · Describe a situation in which you faced an ethical challenge in the workplace and how you resolved it.

    · Tell about a situation when you persuaded someone to accept your ideas or point of view.

    · Provide an example of an unpleasant client situation. How did you handle it? What would you have done differently?

    · Describe a situation where you had to work with ambiguity. How did you deal with the situation and what was the result?

    · Describe an instance when you had to think on your feet to get yourself out of a difficult situation.

    · What was the most challenging or riskiest decision you have made?

    · What was your most significant leadership experience?

    · How do you respond to an employee who is under performing?

    · Tell me about a time when you exhibited initiative.

    · Tell me about a time when you were working on multiple projects that had conflicting deadlines.

    · In your last performance reviews, what were identified as areas needing improvement?

    · Describe your reputation within your last organization.

    · What do you do for fun?

    Thursday, June 18, 2009

    What Simon Alumni and other professional contacts have to say?

    In this post, I would like to share few important comments/suggestions from few of my Simon Alum and other professional contacts. These could be equally inspirational and motivational for the others:
    =================================================
    "Congratulations! That’s great news. Good luck with everything- you’re going to be working very hard…"

    "That’s great news. I told you that cream always rises to the top and so I am not surprised by your accomplishment. Congratulations and enjoy. I wish you the best. Please stay in touch."

    "Congratulations! I know it's been a tough search, and I'm very happy for you."

    "That is great news -- congratulations! Equity research is definitely a good place to be, especially if you are still interested in moving into the healthcare industry at a later time. Sounds like a solid opportunity."

    "Congratulations on your job offer. You should be very proud, and I’m sure you’re looking forward to starting your career on the street. Best of luck in your position, and congrats on your graduation as well."

    "What a wonderful news!!! I am so happy to hear that you got a full time offer in the financial sector and in a group where you will undoubtedly learn a lot. Definitely keep in touch and lets catch up when you settle down in your new role. You are a testament that with persistence and preparation, the sky is the limit. Keep it up."

    "I am very happy for you that you found such a great job in these crazy economic times. Cheers! "

    "Congratulations!!! Having gone through your work, it appears that you are more than a few steps beyond what I would expect from a recent graduate. As a research associate, you’ll essentially be working on projects that are devised by decision makers. It will be a great learning experience and it will give you the time to learn your craft without the pressure to provide investment performance. "

    "That's great. I know you worked really hard in school and in your job search."

    "That is great, many congratulations. You should be very proud of yourself, finding a job in this environment is extremely difficult. Good luck in your new job. Keep in touch."

    "This is really good news and considering the current market situation definitely very good. Congratulations and all the best for your new job."

    "Congrats and thanks a lot for letting me know. So it seems networking helped you a lot in getting this placement. Keep in touch."

    "Congrats! That is great news and sounds like a great opportunity. All the hard work has paid off."

    "Congratulations Jailendra! Nice going in a tough market. "

    "fabulous news! Congrats to you for your determination and perseverance. It will most definitely serve you well as you embark on your new career. Please do stay in touch."

    "Congratulation!!! I'm glad things have worked out. You can be quite proud to have landed something in this environment. "

    "Great news. Make sure you keep in touch with me and Simon"

    "congratulations that's great news, especially in this environment. Good luck in your new role and stay in touch."

    "Congratulations. You are on your way. "

    "Congratulations Jailendra. That is awesome news, I always believed you would. You put in a lot of hard work and you really deserve it. "

    "Congratulations. We are very proud of you!"

    "Congrats! This is great news. All the very best to you. I'm sure you will be a great asset to anyone you work for, as I have myself experienced."

    "Jailendra, I am so excited for you!!! It’s especially exciting to see that you have landed a position in the field that you have been seeking. You have worked SO HARD for your opportunity"

    "Congratulations on your offer, Jailendra. I am truly happy for you. As a job searcher, you displayed the persistence and tenacity that we know pays off, but during the time when you don't know if you'll land something, the not knowing is excruciating, isn't it? "

    "Congratulations!!! That's wonderful news!!! You did all the right things and got rewarded. I'm glad to hear a success story."

    "Congratulations! This is fantastic that you had landed such a fine opportunity in such a tough job market. I am really happy for you! Good luck! I am confident that this will be a springboard for further succes. Do keep in touch."

    This is a great news! You should be proud of yourself to get the role in this environment. I am sure you will nail it - you are incredible candidate and will do very well. I wish you best of luck!
    =================================================
    Bottom line is that everyone likes determination and perseverance. All the best.

    MBA over with a BANG!!!!


    Here I am...June 18 2009...looking forward to the next Monday, June 22....Whats so special about that day?....why am I so excited about it?...Before I disclose that, lets take a step back as I would like to share whatever has happened since my last post in April 2008.....

    I screwed up on my CFA exam last year as I got sick just a week before my exam and 6 hours exam turned out to be a story of lack of revision and lack of concentration. I started with Goldman Sachs from June 9 and it took me just few days to realize that I was not enjoying my experience.
    Not only the projects I was doing but also the kind of activities/tasks done by people around me did not interest me. I think I had too much expectations out of my "Operations" experience. But still I don't regret choosing Goldman over the other options I had. Some good things Goldman internship did to me were getting exposure to "Equity and Interest Rate Derivatives", Goldman Sachs on my resume and an opportunity to interact with some of the smartest guys (outside the Operations group) in the industry...Everyone in one of my group was really helpful and approachable but at the end of the day, it was a "FIT" factor.....

    With not much hope from Goldman for full-time offer and more than that not much interest from my side in joining them, I restarted my networking with Simon Alums and other professional contacts. 9 out of 10 people I approached asked me to accept the offer from Goldman (if i get it) as US financial market was getting precarious day by day. But my persistence paid off and I got three interview calls - Aetna, Cigna and Citigroup. All of them for Corporate Finance role, not exactly what I wanted to do but still better than Goldman Operations.

    15th September 2008 - just a day before my Fall 2008 quarter was supposed to start - I was having a much needed break in Niagara Falls - the two big news appalled the whole world - The 4th largest US Investment Bank, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy protection and Bank of America's move to buy Merrill in a $50bn deal. Three of the top five US investment banks have fallen prey to the sub-prime crisis within six months. Stock markets and the US dollar tumbled in reaction with banking shares hardest hit.

    As the Interview day (Simon School's New York Minute Event) approached, lot of companies countermanded their hiring plans and it was no more difficult to prognosticate about the future of the US job market. Citigroup interview turned out to be a disaster for me as lack of technical preparation hit me hard but it wasn't the case with me in case of my other two interviews - Cigna and Aetna. Both of my interview went extremely well - thanks to my deep research on health care sector and respective companies.

    Cigna called me for the super day interviews and my profound understanding of health care sector and my well prepared behavioral answers again proved to be handy. I was almost confident that I had nailed it. But I was wrong and I couldn't make it as interviewers felt that I was more inclined towards a job in capital market and I won't enjoy my stay in corporate finance group at Cigna.

    In fact, they were RIGHT and I didn't want to repeat the mistake I did while deciding on my internship. Instead I got referred to CIGNA Investment Management (CIM) group and I approached our Simon School's alumni there. They offered me a 1-month internship opportunity for my winter break as they has some short term project going on and my skills would have been extremely useful. I accepted the offer as I considered that as an opportunity to learn about the group, expand my network and if possible, explore any opportunity to get a full-time job there.

    Meanwhile I also attended NSHMBA job conference in October. I personally felt it was extremely helpful. I was able to get three interviews with three different companies - Microsoft (Financial Manager), PwC (Financial Risk Management) and American Airlines (Corporate Finance). My interviews with Microsoft and PwC went really well and I was very much optimistic about it.

    I started with CIM immediately after my fall quarter. And the one thing which stood out at CIM was people as everyone was extremely helpful and approachable. While, I was enjoying my projects at CIM, I also made sure I interact with most of the senior management in the group. Given the short time frame of just 5 weeks, it wasn't that easy but I had just one thing in my mind - "If not now , then never." And my hard work paid off, everyone from my manager to CIO showed interest in my as a possibility of full-time with them.

    But I hope life was that easy.....In the first week of 2009, Cigna decided to fire 1100+ employees as part of its cost-cutting process. Though CIM had no plans to fire anyone, they had to delay plans for hiring as well. And I came back to Simon School without any decision from CIGNA but with just some hope. At the same time, HR of Aetna came up with some good news for me. I was shortlisted for the super day interview and it would be scheduled sometime in March.

    Status on my NSHMBA interviews - American Airlines rejected me after the first round, Microsoft never got back to me and PwC called me for the super day. On Super day, I had 6 interviews with PwC and I believe I screwed up one of the case interviews and that was good enough for me to get a reject.

    Aetna cancelled their super day and hence any job plans this year and my trip to Cigna office in February, to show my continuing interest, turned out to be no more than a perfunctory handshake. In the meantime, I got an opportunity to interview with FBR for an Equity Research Analyst position (to cover financial services) but got kicked for not having enough relevant experience. I unofficially graduated in March but registered for one course so as to delay my official graduation. Pressure was building up and I don't know what drove me to register for CFA again this year (needless to say I had failed last year).

    No anecdotes or deep musings, just some cold hard truth about getting ahead as an MBA. The educational experience is great, as are the friendships, but if you honestly answer why people spend two years and countless thousands of dollars on this degree you’ll conclude that it’s to get a shot at a better future. A more challenging and rewarding career. A new beginning to the rest of your professional life. And here I was, along with most of my other classmates, struggling to land up a single job.

    And then in April 2009, I decided to stay away from Corporate Finance jobs as well as again and again, my passion for capital markets was coming out in my interviews. I decided to just focus upon capital market jobs like - Equity research, Trading and Portfolio Management and these were the areas which were hardest hit by this crisis..........

    I kept on working on a trading and portfolio management tool I had started developing in Oct 2008 and shared that with various Simon Alumni and my professional contacts. Most of the time it worked for me as I got an opportunity to speak/meet with lot of industry professionals in asset management and trading. I landed up an interview with ITG (Investment Technology Group) and after couple of interviews, I got an e-mail saying that "hiring plans have been kept on hold" but as per my internal contacts at ITG, I learnt that the main reason was that they got a feel that I am more like a "Stock Picker and Research" person. Well, here you go, each interview was helping me to develop a specific focus. But in this job market, can u survive with such a focused approach?

    One of my close friend at Simon School, motivated me to develop a valuation model and an equity research report to have a better shot for equity research jobs. And I spent around 2-3 days working on my model and report (no prize for guessing - company i picked was ITG as I had already done lot of research on that). I immediately shared my work with most of the Simon Alumni in the industry and with some other professional contacts in the equity research industry. And BANG....My reply ratio jumped to 90%...i think this is what is called "targeted" networking.

    One of our Simon Alum at Soleil Securities, was highly impressed with my work as he referred me to Pomeroy Research, a research partner of Soleil Securities. I was immediately called for the first round of interview. During my first round of interview with Pomeroy Research, I learnt that they were looking for someone to cover “Health care Information Services” sector. I used next few days (or I should say next 30 hours) to do a thorough research on that industry and came up with a valuation and equity research report for one of the companies in that sector. I shared my work with the Alumni and my interviewers and they called me for the next round of interviews. And then finally, after couple of more conversations and after speaking with my references, they extended me a verbal offer few days back and a formal offer letter this Monday.

    I have accepted the offer and will be starting with them on Monday, 22nd June 2009 as an "Equity Research Associate" position in NYC. I am extremely excited about this opportunity...And now you know why I am looking forward to next Monday......

    I also had my commencement ceremony last Sunday, June 14. Now, just H1B related issues need to be figured out either next year or get a H1B transfer this year itself. Good thing is my new employer is fine with anything.

    I have learnt a lot as I progressed through my journey from the start of my MBA to getting a full-time job offer. If the ultimate goal is landing your dream job in any field of your choice, there are a few important things you should know. Landing an internship in your target field with a respected firm goes a long way. Actually, it is essential if you are a career switcher as I was. I found that there was not enough time in the day to excel at the internship/job search and at academics. Unless you are one of the brilliant people who can master everything simultaneously, you must make choices. If your priority is a great career, do not sacrifice your internship/job search at the expense of your schoolwork. I kept this ratio as 80% job search and 20% schoolwork and still managed to be in top 20% performer and be considered for Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.

    In this tough job market, employers are looking for three things: ability, passion and desire to work for their organization. Someone once said to me - "If you get one call back for every ten you make, then make 400 calls and voila you’ve got 40 leads". So, network like crazy making sure you are within professional limits. Realize that it’s an incredibly competitive job market and you need differentiation. There are very few candidates out there doing all of this. Some rely solely on their school ranking. Some rely solely on a friend or family member. Use those advantages if you have them, but do not stop there.

    Always keep these three points in mind:

    Don’t be a marginal candidate & Always differentiate yourself - The best way to avoid being a borderline candidates is to focus on a particular industry or function. Know the companies in the space, understand their issues, and know the job. The company you want to work for might hire 10 people this year instead of 20; you need to do what it takes be one of the chosen ones.

    Network, Network and Network - Talk to people who have the jobs that you want. Talk to alumni from your university. Talk to people two or three years older than you. To our chagrin, some of the best jobs never get posted to public job boards. Talk to as many people as you can and create channels by which you hear about these opportunities.

    Use unique job search resources - Generic job search sites are being overrun with panicked candidates, creating an immense amount of noise for employers trying to find qualified candidates. If you want to stand out, look for jobs that are posted on niche sites like alumni sites, blogs, and industry associations. For me, linkedIn and Careershift were some of the extremely valuable resources.

    All the Best!!!!